How the market works

A plain-English guide to the tokens, the pools and the live odds — plus the honest fine print. It's all pretend money, and it's all for fun.

The short version

Everyone gets 1,000 free tokens when they sign in. Tokens are pretend points — not real money, and there's nothing to buy, win or cash out. You spend tokens to back what you think will happen at the tournament (who wins, longest drive, a head-to-head duel, and so on). If you're right, you get tokens back. If you're wrong, they're gone. That's the whole game: family bragging rights on a leaderboard.

It's a shared pool, not a bookie

This isn't a casino where "the house" sets a price and pays you. It's what's called a pari-mutuel pool — a fancy way of saying everybody's tokens go into the same pot, and the winners split the pot.

Here's the idea, step by step:

  1. Each thing you can bet on (say, "Tournament Winner") has one pool made up of everyone's tokens, sorted by which outcome they backed.
  2. When you back an outcome, your tokens are added to that outcome's share of the pool.
  3. When we know the real result, the market settles.
  4. Everyone who backed the winning outcome splits the entire pool — in proportion to how much they put in. Back more of the winning side, get a bigger slice.

So your payout doesn't come from a bookmaker. It comes from everyone else's tokens in the pot.

Why the odds move

The odds you see are just a live read-out of the pools. The more tokens piled on an outcome, the shorter its odds — because a lot of people would be splitting the pot, so each winner's slice is smaller. The fewer tokens on an outcome, the longer its odds — fewer winners to share, so a bigger slice each if it comes in.

Every bet nudges the numbers. When you back someone, you make their odds a little shorter for everyone. You move the market. That's why the board keeps changing right up until betting closes.

A quick example

Pretend a head-to-head duel has 300 tokens in the pool: 200 on Player A and 100 on Player B. You put 50 tokens on Player B. Now B's side holds 150 and the whole pool is 350.

If Player B wins, the whole 350-token pool is shared by everyone on B by their share. You put in 50 of the 150 on B — that's one-third — so you'd collect about 117 tokens (roughly a 67-token profit). If Player A wins instead, your 50 tokens are gone. Same bet, two very different endings.

What can go wrong

A friendly warning about real gambling

This site is a for-fun family game with pretend tokens. Nobody deposits money, nobody wins money, and the odds here are just for entertainment. Real-world gambling is a very different — and much more dangerous — thing, and it's worth being honest about it:

If real gambling ever stops being fun or starts feeling out of control — for you or someone you care about — please reach out for help. In the U.S., the National Problem Gambling Helpline is free, confidential and open 24/7: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or visit ncpgambling.org.

Bottom line: keep it here, keep it friendly, keep it fake money. Grip it and rip it. 🏌️

← Back to the predictions